Exo-criminality of risk: An emerging challenge to the security of states and democratic stability

Abstract

This study examines the emergence of Exo-Criminality of Risk (ECR) as a criminal variant that differs from traditional organized crime by originating from external factors, such as migratory dynamics, social crises and other exogenous pressures, rather than from strategic planning by a criminal leadership. The research highlights that the ECR is characterized by a remarkable adaptability and operational flexibility, allowing its rapid integration into diverse local criminal ecosystems and modifying conventional patterns of criminal affiliation. Based on rigorous fieldwork, ethnographic analysis and academic review, the paper identifies two models of criminal expansion: strategic Transnational Organized Crime (TOC) and ECR, the latter driven by external social and opportunity factors. It also emphasizes the need to adapt state responses through police and judicial strategies and internationally coordinated public policies to effectively counter the threat posed by this emerging phenomenon.