Analysis of the Conflict in Syria Prior to the Fall of Bashar al-Assad and Potential Geopolitical Scenarios

Abstract

This article analyzes the Syrian conflict from the outbreak of the 2011 protests through a scenario involving the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 and the subsequent establishment of a transitional government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It examines the domestic origins of the uprising, characterized by regime authoritarianism, corruption, socioeconomic discontent, and the influence of the Arab Spring, as well as the transformation of the uprising into a civil war with sectarian dimensions. The study examines the principal domestic actors—including the regime, the armed forces, the armed opposition, and Islamist groups—as well as external actors, including Russia, China, Iran, the United States (U.S.), the European Union (EU), Türkiye, the Gulf petro-monarchies, Israel, the United Nations (UN), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the League of Arab States (Arab League), highlighting their strategic, military, and energy-related interests. Within this framework, the article demonstrates how Syria became a theater of geopolitical competition and proxy warfare, in which regional and global rivalries contributed to prolonging and radicalizing the conflict. Finally, it outlines potential geopolitical scenarios, including territorial fragmentation, the consolidation of sectarian fault lines, and the challenges involved in building an inclusive and sovereign political project in a country whose reconstruction remains constrained by the interference of external powers.